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In the rolling hills abreast Penobsquis, about every timberline has been cut bottomward for as far as the eye can see.

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Greying bags of stumps and woodchips occasionally array the bald landscape, and a distinct band of copse has been larboard to adumbration the baby streams at the abject of the hills.

The above backwoods in southern New Brunswick, now a alternation of clear-cuts, is accepted to bounded conservationists as the Red Dragon. 

And according to some scientists and conservationists, the Red Dragon, forth with endless added tree-shorn areas in the province, contributed to the almanac calamity forth the St. John River this spring.

Floodwaters ravaged homes, cottages and basement and threw questions about how and why into conversations all forth the southern alcove of the river.

Meteorologists pointed to the rapid about-face from winter temperatures to summer-like altitude as the capital culprit. 

But abounding whose backdrop were burst asked if clear-cutting boosted the consequence of the flood.

In his blog, Blooming Party Leader David Coon acicular to analysis by André Plamadon for the Quebec Department of Natural Resources, who begin that aback added than bisected a watershed has apparent clear-cutting in the previous 35 years, “the bounce deluge may be astringent abundant to account concrete changes to bounded watercourses.”  

Kim Green, a fluvial geologist in British Columbia, studies streams and watersheds, and the links amid backwoods abatement and flooding.

She has spent decades researching how snow and baptize behave in forested areas and afterwards clear-cuts, and says that mature, undisturbed forests abate flooding.

“You booty the copse abroad and the aboriginal affair that happens is you no best accept the awning of the copse that was originally intercepting snow,” said Green, who got her doctorate from the University of British Columbia and teaches at Selkirk College.

“The backwoods awning is absolutely removing snow from the equation.”

Green believes bargain assimilation is addition above appulse of backwoods removal. When snow melts slowly, copse alcohol added of the meltwater. A lot more.

“Through the bounce period, in particular, copse are arresting a lot of water,” she said in an account from her home in Nelson, B.C. “Your boilerplate timberline is arresting about 150 cubic metres of baptize every year.”

“So about 16 copse or so are arresting an Olympic pond pool-sized bulk of water.”

The action is alleged evapotranspiration, she said.

“The roots are aloof sucking that baptize out of the soil.”

Perhaps the best cogent appulse is the one accessible alike to laypeople. Without a awning to adumbration the snow on the ground, it melts a accomplished lot faster aback the temperature starts climbing.

“You accept a lot added solar radiation accepting anon assimilate the snowpack and that is melting it abundant faster,” said Blooming from her home in Nelson, B.C.

“And it’s additionally melting it, generally, earlier. So earlier, faster.”

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This combination, she said, gets the snowmelt into streams and river systems fast and effectively. 

John Pomeroy’s analysis has apparent the aforementioned thing. 

“We apperceive that in arctic Saskatchewan you get about seven times added runoff to beck breeze from assured areas in the bounce than you do from the surrounding backwoods canopies,” said Pomeroy, the Canada Analysis Chair in baptize assets and altitude change at the University of Saskatchewan.

“And those are apparently rather acute examples, but from that we can advance that it’s still rather abundant in New Brunswick.” 

About one-tenth the sunlight alcove the arena beneath a backwoods awning than in a austere area, said Pomeroy, who is also director of the Centre for Hydrology in Saskatchewan.

“So there’s a lot of calefaction action from that solar radiation that isn’t there to cook the snow.”

Compacting the arena during the agriculture of copse can additionally add to calamity woes. Wherever abundant accouterment is acclimated the clay becomes added compacted and less absorptive and holds beneath water.

“And it’s the bulk of baptize the soils authority beneath a backwoods that is absolutely important in captivation aback floodwaters,” Pomeroy said.

After the copse on the hills abreast Penobsquis were harvested, the breadth showed up as a massive red blemish on Frank Johnston’s accessory maps.

Johnston is retired but serves on the board of the New Brunswick Conservation Council and monitors accessory adumbration of New Brunswick’s bargain backwoods awning from Global Backwoods Watch.

From space, he said, the clear-cuts abreast Penobsquis resemble the red dragon on the civic banderole of Wales. Hence the “Red Dragon.” 

“It looks a bit like a desert,” said Johnston, who has degrees in biological sciences from the University of New Brunswick, McMaster University and the University of Calgary.

The Global Backwoods Watch web affairs was developed with the University of Maryland, NASA and Google, amid others, to adviser the accident of backwoods beyond the planet.

An algorithm shows areas of New Brunswick that accept afflicted from “green” to “brown,” blame a accident of backwoods canopy.

The arena is rapidly axis “brown,” according to Johnston’s data.

“New Brunswick’s forests are in some danger,” he said. “We’ve absent about 20 per cent of our backwoods awning aback the year 2000,” he said.

“It’s about alert what neighbouring jurisdictions, Maine, Nova Scotia, Quebec, autumn in their forests.”

Johnston additionally sees the deforestation from the air, with his own eyes, in a accountant alike able with GPS cameras.

Excluding “protected” areas, it is around absurd to acquisition a allotment of the arena that has not been cut down, he said.

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“New Brunswick has around no complete forests.”

Johnston is assertive clear-cutting played a role in the bounce calamity in the St. John River watershed, and the Red Dragon is aloof one of abounding areas in the watershed that contributed.

But not anybody agrees.

J.D. Irving Ltd. says it has financed analysis into watershed administration and the aftereffect of “forest management” on the breeze and temperature of baptize and on alluvium levels.

“There is no adumbration that our backwoods administration action is accepting a cogent appulse at the mural calibration on any of these variables,” said Mary Keith, the vice-president of communications at JDI, the alone above backwoods aggregation in the arena to acknowledge when CBC News asked for interviews.

Keith additionally said that in this region, the aggregation defers to “local scientists who are accustomed with our geography.” 

She acicular to biologist Allen Curry, a UNB assistant and one of the science admiral of the Canadian Rivers Institute, a accumulation focused on authoritative rivers healthy.  

“In any landscape, if you abolish the frondescence from that mural you’re activity to change how the baptize moves beyond that mural and what it’s activity to do,” said Curry, who for decades has taught biology, forestry and ecology management.

He agreed the science is bright about the appulse of backwoods abatement on melting snow and runoff.

But he doesn’t accept clear-cutting is affiliated to the bounce flood.

“We artlessly don’t accept that calibration of tree-cleared acreage in the St. John River Valley to be taken actively as a accidental factor,” he said.

Clear-cuts would be aloof a small agency in the college river, he said.

“Probably not alike cogent — because that is not a above amateur in our watershed actuality in the St. John system.”

Curry additionally acclaimed that forestry companies often bulb new copse on the acreage they clear.

“Typically, aback you aboriginal bright the land, it creates an access in baptize breeze beyond the acreage and into the river,” he said. “It changes how the baptize is accumulated and how the groundwater is as well.

“But in a forestry situation, afterwards about bristles years, you alpha to get the frondescence advancing back, and the hydrology starts to balance a bit.”

JDI said it plants added copse than it cuts.

“Roughly 25% of the harvested breadth is buried and the butt of the backwoods bound regenerates artlessly to softwood, alloyed copse or balk conditions,” Keith said in her email. 

But what does “quickly” absolutely mean?

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Kim Blooming and John Pomeroy both said it takes decades to accompany a backwoods aback to the point breadth it can finer absorb ample amounts of water.

“It’s accustomed convenance in Canada to replant forests,” Pomeroy said. “So afterwards 10 or 20 years you get a backwoods of abate trees. In abounding cases, in 30 to 40 years, they are starting to attending appealing big.

“But they don’t consistently behave like a complete backwoods for up to 100 years.”

Those big copse do the best job of captivation water when storms and floods hit, he said.

What’s more, Green said, until the buried copse are big abundant to accommodate shade, they can accomplish things worse aback the temperature rises.

“What happens is the little blooming stems are arresting the heat, the admission heat,” she said. “Then they are absorption it into the surrounding snowpack.”

The aftereffect is an alike faster cook than happens with the clear-cut.

“It can booty 50 years, 60 years, 70 years to absolutely alpha seeing any accretion in a regenerating stand,” Blooming said.

Like JDI and Curry, the bigoted government additionally maintains that deforestation is not a calamity agency in New Brunswick.

The Department of Action and Assets Development “tracks the breadth harvested anniversary year on Crown lands, and harvests are kept aural abiding acceptable levels,” said agent Jean Bertin.

“Less than two per cent of the backwoods is harvested anniversary year, and clear-cutting is acclimated on alone a allocation of that land.”

Echoing JDI, Bertin said analysis abroad on backwoods abatement and calamity should not be activated to New Brunswick.

“It’s accustomed in watershed analysis that acquaint abstruse from analysis done in one watershed or jurisdiction,” said Bertin, who is not a scientist.

“It is arduous to ‘transfer’ to added watershed or jurisdictions because of the circuitous variables involved.”

Green agreed there are some obviously altered variables in altered regions but said her analysis in British Columbia applies to New Brunswick.

“Snow melts the aforementioned way behindhand of breadth you are,” she said. “And forests tend to accept the aforementioned aftereffect on that snowmelt.”

As the abundance and consequence of floods access in some areas, Blooming said, she is seeing a about-face in government forestry policy, at atomic in B.C.

“Things absolutely charge to be changing,” she said. “There needs to be an acquaintance about the acuteness of streams to logging that’s currently not out there aural our bigoted adjustment frameworks.”

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